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Survey: Professionals Forecast UK to Remain in Europe In a new survey that polled 130 analysts, consultants, journalists, finance specialists, real-sector heads, policy-makers and portfolio managers, 75% forecast that the UK electorate will vote in favour of the UK remaining in the European Union (EU) in the 23rd June referendum. ...
Commodity Rally and Central Bank Dovishness Running Hand in Hand, For Now Dovish global central bank policy, led by the US Federal Reserve, and a rise in the global price of energy, metals and other commodities have been key drivers of the rally in global risk appetite since mid-January. Specifically, the US ...
Going for Gold

18:30 April 8th 2016 in News, Market Talk

Going for Gold

Back in 2009, a research team at Nomura put forth the theory that investors should treat commodities as currencies and apply macro tools such as carry, value and momentum trades. Creating a Macro Commodity Strategy (MaCS) based on this theory, the ...
Crisis? What Crisis?

13:13 April 6th 2016 in News, Market Talk

Crisis? What Crisis?

Much has been made of the recent weakness of sterling. Today, the Bank of England’s trade-weighted sterling index has dropped to its lowest level (83.89) since December 2013. The sell-off is inevitably being at least partially attributed to fears that the ...
SWIFT Reports 18% Jump in RMB Adoption Figures released by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) today reveal that nearly 40% of financial institutions worldwide have adopted RMB when exchanging payments with China and Hong Kong. 1,131 banks used the RMB in payments with China and Hong ...
Study: Policy Improvements Needed to Avoid Currency Crisis Policy improvement and cooperation between monetary and fiscal policy is essential in order to avoid a major currency or debt crisis, according to a new academic paper. Written by Richard Preschern, co-founder and chief risk officer at FX Vision, and ...
Dovish Tide Amongst Central Banks Poses Challenges Monetary policy, in developed markets at least, increasingly seems a case of words speaking louder than actions. At its policy meeting on 26 January, the European Central Bank delivered nothing but its commitment to deliver on its mandate of 2% inflation and ...
The Evolving Nature of the Fixed Income Markets – BIS The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released two new reports, highlighting the structure and liquidity of fixed income markets and finds that while recent market changes do not appear to have had a negative effect on liquidity, in times of ...
2016 - A Goldilocks Year?

23:07 January 12th 2016 in News, Market Talk

2016 - A Goldilocks Year?

A Goldilocks Year, not too hot, not too cold is our central scenario for 2016, and it would look something like this: Global growth accelerates a little in 2016 to 3.5%, after 3.2% in 2015. Inflation in developed markets (DM) recovers back to 2% targets, but ...
Early Bearishness – a Blip or a Trend? Markets have started the new year under pressure, with Chinese equities down 7% on 4 January (before automatic circuit breakers kicked in), the Dow Jones shedding 1.6% and the FTSE nursing a 2.4% loss – the worst first trading day losses for many years. Some ...