FX turnover is down, but not by as much as some expected. Why?
So the latest Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Triennial Central Bank Survey is out and, as Profit & Loss previously reported, the headline figure is that the FX market has contracted in size from $5.3 trillion to $5.1 trillion traded per day over the past three years.
This news seems to have caught very few people by surprise, however the survey shows spot foreign exchange volumes are lower while FX swaps activity has grown considerably, especially in Asian centres and in the yen.
Just about 10 months ago the deal was announced to sell Icap’s voice business to Tullett Prebon and at that time, in this column, I suggested that a consequence of that deal would be an easier path for anyone looking to buy Icap’s electronic business, subsequently revealed to be named Nex.
Obviously I cited an exchange as the most likely buyer and it seems, if the headlines of last week are anything to go by, that the pieces are being moved into place. Moving pieces is, however, very different to an actual deal – what are the chances of that?